It’s not that unusual for a tropical system to develop in the month of June, but to track the potential for TWO tropical systems at the same time, that’s pretty rare for June.
In fact, it’s something that hasn’t happened since 1968 and only three times in recorded history.
That rarity will likely become a reality again as we monitor two budding tropical disturbances, one near the Yucatan peninsula in the southern Gulf and another in the western Atlantic racing toward the Windward Islands.
Let’s start with the one closer to home, Invest 93-L, which is just a way to label tropical disturbances being “investigated.”
As of Monday morning, satellite imagery still shows a very disorganized plume of moisture stretching from the eastern Gulf down into the western Caribbean.
It’s going to take some time for this feature to organize, but chances remain high for this disturbance to form into a depression or Tropical Storm within the next two days.
Forecasting the eventual track and evolution of this potential tropical threat has been challenging so far with the two most reliable forecast models, the European and American model, offering different solutions on how things will play out.
The European model (often referred to as the Euro) shows a developing tropical system in the southern Gulf, which turns sharply west toward Texas by Wednesday and Thursday.
The GFS (known as the American model), suggests a more northerly track aimed at the northern Gulf from Louisiana to the far western Florida panhandle.
What’s interesting to note is even with the two varying tracks from our two most reliable models, both agree the heaviest rain will fall in the same area: the northern Gulf coast from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana.
This region could pick up between 6-12 inches or rain in the next few days!
Not one model brings a tropical system to Southwest Florida, so there is no concern or tropical threat for us.
However, we will stay on the northeastern edge of this massive moisture plume…