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Victory for French eurosceptics in election ’won’t be an apocalypse’ | City & Business | Finance

The country is currently on a knife edge as the electorate prepares to come out in force in this weekend’s elections.

Analysts say that a potential to put France’s euro membership to a popular vote – a Frexit – is proving to be a main driver for voters.

Front National candidate Marine Le Pen and left-wing Unsubmissive France candidate Jean Luc Melenchon are going head to head as the only two candidates to favour giving voters a say on the EU.

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Front National Le Pen is facing off with Jean Luc Melenchon

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Mr Macron took a break to go skiing alongside his wife Bridget


Marine Le Pen and Melenchon want to put France’s euro membership to a popular vote, and both are opponents of the EU project, at least in its current form

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG


Republican Francois Fillon and En Marche! candidate and former civil servant Emmanuel Macron are against a complete reworking of France’s relationship with the bloc.

Now analysts are warning that if, against all polls data, either one of the two “fringe candidates” somehow triumph then it’s not the end of the world for the country.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: “Marine Le Pen and Melenchon want to put France’s euro membership to a popular vote, and both are opponents of the EU project, at least in its current form.

“A possible French exit from the single currency, and potentially even the EU, will likely destabilise markets, at least in the short term. 

“The lesson of Brexit and of Trump is that we should not get too apocalyptic in our predictions. 

“Even if one of these two ‘fringe’ candidates were to win, it would be difficult for them to put their manifestos into practice as complex constitutional changes cannot be enacted by presidential fiat. 

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Posters of Mr Macron and Mrs Le Pen have been vandalised

“They require the approval of both chambers of the French parliament, in which neither the FN or Melenchon’s party La France Insoumise (FI) have majorities.”

But Joel Gombin, a director of l’Observatoire des Radicalités Politiques, says while leftist voters may mobilise to beat Mrs Le Pen in a second round, a “political realignment” could also be on the cards in the overarching French political establishment.

The National Assembly elections, which take place in June, could likely see Front National make huge gains.

Mr Gombin said: “There are moments in history when voter behaviour shifts dramatically and the balance of political forces is transformed.

“This happened in 1981 and 1984, when the FN first emerged as a significant electoral player.

“In the event of a realignment that places globalisation and France’s relations with the rest of the world at the centre of political debate, it is conceivable that half of the electorate could find itself drawn towards the FN.

“The centre-right Republicans, having lost their raison d’etre (winning elections) as a…

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